Inflation data released the Fed's interest rate cut in December, but it lit up a yellow light for next year. The latest inflation data may make the Fed more cautious about the pace of interest rate cut, but not now. The latest report shows that inflation in the United States in November was in line with expectations, so investors still generally expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week. However, stubborn price pressure also confirms the concern that the progress towards the Fed's 2% target may stagnate. This concern may prompt officials to be more restrained in predicting the number of interest rate cuts in 2025, while waiting for more evidence that inflation will steadily reach the target. Fed policymakers will release new forecasts and interest rate outlook at the end of the policy meeting in Washington on December 17-18. "I think they can safely cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. The market is ready for this, "said Loretta Mester, former president of Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank. "However, they must reconsider next year, because now it seems that the progress of inflation has really stagnated."Trump's NASA candidate called his future SpaceX mission a "question mark". On Wednesday, Jared Isaacman, a billionaire in science and technology, who was selected by President-elect Trump, said that his planned private astronaut mission with Musk's SpaceX company "may be put on hold" because he was ready to enter the government to lead NASA.CSI A500ETF ushered in the first dividend-paying product. On December 11th, ICBC Credit Suisse Fund announced that ICBC CSI A500ETF planned to pay dividends and became the first dividend-paying CSI A500ETF. In fact, in the current low-rate background, the dividend mechanism has gradually become a differentiated selling point of popular ETFs. Among the 22 CSI A 500 ETFs in the first batch and the second batch, 4 products have a mandatory dividend mechanism, and the dividend ratio is not less than 60%. The dividend ratio of individual products can reach 80%, and the monthly dividend frequency is set for CSI A 500 ETFs. According to the analysis of public offering, under the guidance and encouragement of policies, the dividend mechanism of A-share listed companies has been continuously improved, and the dividend level has been continuously improved. Leading enterprises in the industry often have stronger willingness to pay dividends because of their stronger profitability and anti-risk ability. ETF products meet the liquidity needs of investors through dividends, which is conducive to improving the investment experience. (Securities Times)
Securities Daily: Vigorously boosting consumption is the focus of macro-policy at present. The the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting held on December 9 pointed out that it is necessary to vigorously boost consumption, improve investment efficiency and expand domestic demand in all directions. At present, China is in the stage of rapid growth of service consumption. In the future, all parties should continuously optimize and expand service supply, better stimulate the endogenous kinetic energy of service consumption, and provide strong support for expanding domestic demand and stimulating the economy. Promoting consumption is the main starting point for expanding domestic demand, and boosting consumption is the focus of macroeconomic policy. We firmly believe that with the continuous efforts of various policy initiatives, consumer confidence will continue to increase and consumption potential will continue to be released.Morgan Stanley downgraded Hikvision to equal rating, with a target price of RMB in 36 yuan. Andy Meng, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, was previously rated as over-matched. The target price is 36 yuan RMB, which is up by 14%.In the end, the "tax reduction month" is now or never. The bank will make a profit to open a personal pension account. "You can get a shopping reduction when you open an account!" Recently, an employee of a big bank said that near the end of the year, the bank's marketing efforts for individual pension accounts have increased significantly. In addition to shopping coupons, tax relief, etc., some institutions even sent "opening an account to send gold" benefits, which is full of eye-catching effects. Since the trial operation, the personal pension system has developed for two years, and the related wealth management products and the number of accounts opened have continued to increase, but the "cold deposit" is still in sharp contrast with the "hot account opening". Insiders suggest that residents' willingness to invest after opening an account can be enhanced by enriching the product system and adjusting the withdrawal system. On December 11th, a person familiar with the matter revealed that a number of commercial banks have recently been informed that the relevant departments will hold a video conference on the full implementation of the personal pension system in the middle of this month, or it is related to the full expansion of the implementation scope of the personal pension system-"fully opening the gate" is ready to come. (Securities Times)
The central government has decided to adjust the fiscal policy for next year: increase the deficit, special national debt and special debt quota. According to CCTV news broadcast, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. When deploying the fiscal policy for next year, the meeting said that it is necessary to implement a more active fiscal policy, improve the fiscal deficit ratio, increase the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds, increase the issuance and use of local government special bonds, optimize the fiscal expenditure structure, and firmly grasp the bottom line of "three guarantees" at the grassroots level. According to the above-mentioned meeting arrangements, in 2025, deficit ratio will exceed 3%, ultra-long-term special national debt will exceed 1 trillion yuan, and the amount of new special debt will also exceed 3.9 trillion yuan. This means that fiscal policy will be more active next year. This is also in line with market expectations. A number of interviewed finance and taxation experts predict that deficit ratio may be 3.5%~4% next year, the ultra-long-term special national debt is expected to be 1.5 trillion yuan to 2 trillion yuan, and the amount of special debt is expected to be around 4.5 trillion yuan. Of course, this is only an expert's prediction or suggestion, and the final actual relevant data still needs to be announced during the National People's Congress in March next year. (CBN)Peter Orsag, CEO of Lazard Financial Consultant: We will turn to an environment where antitrust agencies will not have instinctive aversion to large technology companies. We see that many private equity activities are increasing.Morgan Stanley downgraded Hikvision to equal rating, with a target price of RMB in 36 yuan. Andy Meng, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, was previously rated as over-matched. The target price is 36 yuan RMB, which is up by 14%.
Strategy guide
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide 12-14